After weeks and weeks of weightlifting, drills, practices, and scrimmages – most of them in 90-degree weather – we are finally on the brink of real hitting and blocking. The kickoff of the 2023 high school football season is at hand. Marching bands have been practicing, cheerleaders have their halftime routines all choreographed and the snack bars are being stocked with fattening food.
All Elk Grove-area teams are in action Friday with the hopes of a league and/or Section championship in mind. Some teams are already thinking beyond that to a State Bowl game championship. However lofty the goals, all teams start Friday undefeated.
That’s what makes opening night so special. Eleven weeks of football around the region with 10 games (and one bye week) culminating in the Sac-Joaquin Section playoffs come November. All league champions earn an automatic bid into the post-season. The other 57 at-large entries will be determined by the CalPreps.com ranking.
That’s a complicated mathematical formula which takes into account each team’s level of competition, its won-loss record, its opponents’ won-loss record and margin of victory. For example, Cal Preps has Folsom the top-rated team in the Section at 44.8. Another top team this season is supposed to be St. Mary’s of Stockton. Their rating is 32.4. Grant has the top rating in the Metro Conference at 21.6, Central Catholic’s is 25.3.
What this means is that if Folsom was to play St. Mary’s the Bulldogs would beat the Rams by 12 points (44.8 minus 32.4).
Now, here are the Cal Preps Week Zero numbers for the Elk Grove-area teams:
Monterey Tr. 15.5
Elk Grove 14.0
Sheldon 0.0
Bradshaw Cr. -7.2
Laguna Cr. -8.5
Cos.Oaks -10.6
Franklin -16.6
Pleasant Gr. -29.1
Florin -75.8
Valley -92.5
Last season while following these analytics I found Cal Preps to be amazingly accurate. Sure, there’s going to be a game where someone throws four interceptions or fumbles the football a couple times that become scoop-and-scores. Those kinds of upsets will happen, but generally these analytics work so well that the Section uses the end-of-season number of each team to fill at-large playoff berths.
So, let’s now look at local Week Zero (that’s what the first week of high school football is called in the Sac-Joaquin Section) action:
Folsom (44.8) vs. Monterey Trail (15.5) – The Mustangs are the fifth-ranked team in Division I and rightfully so. T.J. Ewing will reload with plenty of guys to run his veer. But, watch this year because offensive coordinator Rick Arcuri may have the Mustangs throw the football a little bit more than in years past. Ewing loves to schedule tough teams in the non-conference part of the slate. Last year, Monterey Trail traveled to Folsom and was handed a 47-18 defeat by the eventual Division I champion. By the looks of the Cal Preps ratings, this may happen once again, but at Mark Macres Stadium this week.
Bradshaw Christian (-7.2) vs. Woodland Christian (-12.6) – Drew Rickert’s Pride should have a good test in Woodland Christian, a Division VII school. Rickert’s boys looked pretty good in last Friday’s scrimmage with Sacramento. Final score Bradshaw Christian 24, Woodland Christian 18.
Elk Grove (14.0) vs. Granite Bay (25.5) – Two coaching friends, the Herd’s John Heffernan and the Grizzlies’ Joe Cattolico, once again face off in Week Zero. Cattolico has the top-ranked team in Division II while Elk Grove is No. 7 in D-I. Defense will once again determine the winner of this showdown, much like it did in 2022. The Cal Preps’ numbers look pretty accurate for a final score: Granite Bay 26, Elk Grove 14.
Sheldon (0.0) vs. Capital Christian (12.7) – Cap Christian is the Section’s top-rated team in Division IV. The Huskies, after a 8-4 season, will be relying on several new varsity players and have some question marks in 2023. After being hit hard by graduation, this may be Chris Nixon’s toughest coaching task in all his seasons both at Sheldon and at Elk Grove. Final score looks to be Capital Christian 28, Sheldon 16.
Cosumnes Oaks (-10.6) vs. Vanden (6.8) – The Wolfpack is much better than that -10.6. And, while Vanden looks like a quality Div. IV team this season I doubt Cosumnes Oaks will go to Fairfield and lay an egg. Let’s give the ratings some honor yet with a smaller score differential. Final: Vanden 30, Cosumnes Oaks 24.
Woodcreek (8.5) vs. Franklin (-16.6) – Woodcreek will be one of the Section’s best teams in Division III and could win the Capital Valley Conference this season. Like Cosumnes Oaks and Pleasant Grove, Franklin will be much better in Joseph McCray’s second season with the Wildcats. But, Woodcreek is quite good. Final Score: Woodcreek 31, Franklin 8.
Pleasant Grove (-29.1) vs. Lodi (-9.2) – Like the last two games, the Eagles/Flames matchup should be much closer than the numbers indicate. I just feel good about Josh Crabtree’s guys this year and let’s pick our first “upset” of the season. Final Score: Pleasant Grove 22, Lodi 20.
West Park (0.0) vs. Laguna Creek (-8.5) – In its first varsity season West Park really flexed its muscle in Week Zero of 2022 and defeated the Cardinals, 70-40, in a shootout. Now, the Cardinals get a chance at some revenge. Like the Pleasant Grove game, let’s go against the Cal Preps ratings and hand Laguna Creek a 35-31 win and have Halim Tholley run at least one return for TD to kick off 2023.
Florin (-75.8) vs. Lindhurst (-75.2) – How about an opening day win for the Panthers? Florin 16, Lindhurst 14.
Valley (-92.5) vs. Golden Sierra (-68.7) – The Vikings will need to travel to Garden Valley in Donald James’ first game at Valley. But Golden Sierra, a Division VII school, looks ready. Final Score: Golden Sierra 27, Valley 7.